Executive Summary for Decision Makers

The years 2019 and 2020 have left an indelible mark on human and planetary history. They were two of the three hottest years ever recorded, with atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide (CO₂) reaching their highest point in more than 800,000 years in March 2019 and rising nearly 50% over pre-industrial levels.¹ Within this context, a global pandemic was declared in March 2020, resulting in extensive loss of life and economic hardship that increased social divides both within and between countries. The pandemic has dominated policy and funding discussions, delaying urgent global action on a growing climate crisis and widening inequalities that the United Nations 2030 Agenda on Sustainable Development seeks to address.

The COVID-19 pandemic has transformed transport and mobility patterns in every part of the world. The health crisis brought transport demand to a temporary standstill in much of the world due to lockdowns and distancing measures. While a significant population shifted to work from home, many of those who were required to commute faced reduced transport options. Demand for public transport and air travel plunged, while walking and cycling rates surged on reconfigured streets. Global maritime trade dropped around 4% in 2020, with about 12% of the container fleet idled at the peak of initial lockdowns.² These trends caused oil demand to plummet temporarily, brought transport emissions to a near halt, and cleared some urban skies for the first time in memory. While global CO₂ emissions dropped an estimated 5% overall in 2020, emissions from transport fell nearly 20%, more than any other sector.³

Despite the pandemic’s impact on transport demand, transport emissions are still not on the right track.  The transport sector was the fastest growing fossil fuel combustion sector worldwide from 2010 to 2019, with sectoral emissions rising more than 17% during this period.⁴ In absolute terms, transport was the second-highest emitting sector (along with industrial emissions) in 2019.⁵ Increases in road, aviation and shipping activity (both passenger and freight) were leading factors behind global growth in transport CO₂ emissions from 2000 to 2019.⁶  

In order to meet Paris Agreement targets and to keep the rise in the average global temperature below 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C), transport emissions will need to drop two-thirds below 2019 levels (or by 8 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO₂) by 2050.⁷ Therefore, the temporary reduction in transport emissions experienced during the pandemic in 2020 is roughly equal to the reductions needed annually to meet 2050 targets and to close the transport emissions gap.⁸ However, as of May 2021, only 15% of the 54 second-generation Nationally Determined Contributions submitted by countries under the framework of the Paris Agreement included a specific target for reducing transport emissions, showing limited progress towards meeting key goals.⁹

The pandemic has underscored the need for policy makers to take bold steps to address catastrophic impacts to transport and mobility systems. However, while some leaders and practitioners – often at the local level – have demonstrated willingness to take short-term action on mobility to increase access and well-being (e.g., by reallocating road space and supporting public transport), others have hesitated to take bold steps. These mixed responses have catalysed renewed commitments from policy makers and activists to stabilise the climate while increasing equity, inclusion and social justice, through climate strikes and other actions.

Pandemic recovery packages so far have proven a mixed bag for climate action in the transport sector. While a number of national recovery packages have firmly embraced a goal to “build back better” (e.g., by promoting electric vehicles or shifting from air travel to rail), many have upheld the status quo (e.g., by backtracking on fossil fuel subsidy reform or providing unconditional airline bailouts) rather than adopting green and equitable recovery strategies for transport systems. The pandemic has also led to severe budget cuts in some national aid programmes, threatening to widen social and economic divides between the Global North and South and to push meaningful climate action even further into the future (see Section 4 on Financing Climate Action in Transport).¹⁰

Only radical action will contribute to meeting ambitious Paris Agreement targets and achieving the  Sustainable Development Goals. Only radical action will guarantee the balanced Avoid-Shift-Improve approach that is needed: to Avoid unnecessary motorised trips based on proximity and accessibility; Shift to less carbon-intensive transport modes; and Improve vehicle design, energy efficiency and clean energy sources (see Section 1.1 on Global Transport and Climate Change). Only radical action will ensure that sustainable, low carbon transport and mobility is a vital component of an equitable, healthy, green and resilient pandemic recovery.¹²

Threats

Transport CO₂ emission trends – in most countries and regions – are not moving in the right direction. In 2019, transport was the top or second-highest CO₂-emitting sector in more than three-quarters of the world’s countries, and from 2010 to 2019, total transport emissions decreased in only a fifth of countries.  High-income countries contributed half of transport emissions during this time, with per capita emissions nearly 15 times above 2050 Paris Agreement targets.¹⁴  Rising transport emissions have been driven by rising automobile use and plummeting public transport ridership due to the pandemic. (See Section 1: Global and Regional Overview.)

Transport emission trends have progressed unevenly across regions, sectors and income groups. Europe was the only world region that stabilised its transport CO₂ emissions over the past decade, while transport emissions surged more than 20% in other regions.¹⁵ International aviation and shipping grew 37% and 10%, respectively, over the decade, yet these sources remain uncounted in most national emission inventories (outside of the European Union, EU).¹⁶ Member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and non-OECD countries currently contribute roughly equal shares of transport CO₂ emissions, reflecting the approximate split of global GDP.¹⁷ However, between 2010 and 2019, transport CO₂ emissions grew 4% in OECD member countries and 34% in non-OECD countries, suggesting a growing divergence.¹⁸  (See Section 2 on Transport Demand, Emissions and Targets.)

In the face of this growth, the ambition to mitigate transport emissions in countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) is falling short. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change extended the timeline for countries to submit second-generation NDCs until 9 to 12 months before the 2021 UN Climate Change Conference (COP26, postponed to November 2021).¹⁹ However, the sector is not on track to meet emission reduction targets for 2050.

Under a business-as-usual pathway, transport CO₂ emissions could increase from 8 Gt in 2019 to 14.5 Gt in 2050.²⁰ Yet, as of May 2021, only 15% of NDC submissions (representing 7 countries and the EU-27, out of 54 total submissions) had set transport mitigation targets in revised NDCs.²¹ Long-term low emissions development strategies (LT-LEDS) focus strongly on Improve measures (more than half of all measures), whereas Shift and Avoid measures (7% each) are less well-represented.²² (See Section 3 on Responses to Address Climate Change in the Transport Sector.)

 Accelerating action on transport sector resilience to climate change impacts is falling short in country plans. Although adaptation strategies are a required element of NDCs, only 28% of submissions (15 total) as of May 2021 included specific transport adaptation measures.²³ Most National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) offer few details on transport measures, and only 50% of submissions (11 total) since 2015 have specifically included them.²⁴ With no new NAPAs submitted in the last four years, the adaptation gap in least-developed countries is growing wider.

Financing has not kept pace with growing needs for sustainable, low carbon transport in most cities and countries. Climate-focused transport spending has been overshadowed by “brown investments” in highways and other carbon-intensive transport infrastructure, with two-thirds of infrastructure investments (totalling USD 586 billion per year in the 50 largest economies) in 2015 going to road transport.²⁵ Fossil fuel subsidies continue to outpace renewable energy spending in transport budgets by orders of magnitude.  Similarly, many COVID-19 recovery packages and bailout programmes have invested more heavily in fossil fuel-related companies than in clean energy, a trend that is likely to drive transport emissions upward.²⁶ (See Section 4 on Financing Climate Action in Transport.)

Electric mobility is not a silver bullet for transport decarbonisation and requires a holistic notion of sustainable mobility. Most policy attention is focused on private vehicles, and much current dialogue fails to consider realities in the Global South (including the widespread import of used vehicles).²⁷ Electric vehicles accounted for around 25% of motorised two- and three-wheelers and 18% of public buses, but only 1% of private passenger cars in 2020.²⁸ Electric mobility has limited potential in aviation, shipping and heavy-duty trucking, and it will only fully decarbonise transport if it is powered with renewable energy. Electric mobility requires differentiated strategies by region and a greater focus on shared fleets (including electric buses, mini-buses, and two- and three-wheelers); otherwise, its expansion will simply lead to cleaner congestion. (See Section 3.8 on Electric Mobility.)

Opportunities

Commitments to phase out internal combustion engines are driving more sustainable emission trajectories. Low carbon transport measures are becoming increasingly efficient and leading to more positive trends than were previously projected. Whereas in 2017 the emission gap between the projected business-as-usual and low carbon transport emission levels was estimated to reach 16 gigatonnes of CO₂ by 2050, newer estimates (based on studies up to 2019) show a smaller gap of around 12 gigatonnes.²⁹ 

Targets for phasing out the use of internal combustion engines (and for phasing in electric vehicles) are accelerating the pace of transport decarbonisation. So far, 19 countries, at least 11 cities and regions, and a number of automobile manufacturers have announced phase-out commitments.³⁰ Accelerated uptake of electric mobility has been coupled with halting progress towards divestment from fossil fuels – including recent rulings against Chevron, Exxon and Royal Dutch Shell for dragging their feet on climate action – and some oil companies endorsing
carbon pricing.³¹

Technological advances are reshaping the landscape, as plunging battery prices are making electric vehicles more affordable for many users, especially in the Global South.³² More-affordable batteries are facilitating the rapid scale-up of electric bicycles in Europe, North America and South Asia, and of electric bus fleets in leading e-bus countries such as China, Chile and Colombia.³³ While tested solutions are plentiful, there is a need for more dedicated champions and more sustained financing to make them the rule rather than the exception. 

Established emission reduction measures are complementing emerging technological advances.  Increasing fuel economy and quality standards for light- and heavy-duty vehicles continues apace, with 30 countries actively improving fuel economy-related policies since 2018, and nearly 80% of all light-duty vehicles sold as of 2017 subject to such regulations.³⁴ Limiting imports of polluting used vehicles in the Global South is progressing, as reflected in the recent commitments of 18 countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America.³⁵ 

Many low-carbon transport measures can be implemented quickly and inexpensively with sufficient political will.  Many short-term policy measures have been implemented during the pandemic, which saw “tactical urbanism” measures – such as the deployment of open streets in more than 194 cities globally as of October 2020 – that allow millions of people to reimagine their daily mobility needs.³⁶ Active transport (walking and cycling) has increased in many cities, and Europe quickly built 1,500 kilometres of bicycle lanes, allocating EUR 1.7 billion (USD 2 billion) for cycling promotion.³⁷ 

Uncertainties

A number of uncertainties – many of them heightened by the pandemic – have the potential to enhance, accelerate or reverse the positive impacts of climate action in the transport sector. Anticipating and addressing such uncertainties, while capitalising on emerging opportunities and addressing looming threats, can maximise positive outcomes for sustainable, low carbon transport. Important questions remain in a diverse range of issue areas, as outlined below.

Anticipating and monitoring such uncertainties, while capitalising on emerging opportunities and addressing looming threats, will maximise positive outcomes for climate action in the transport sector.

Following on the threats, opportunities and uncertainties covered above, we investigate here a number of promising and challenging trends over the past two years – in areas from Aviation to Zero-emission vehicles – that will establish the direction of sustainable, low carbon transport for years to come. (Note: these are selected highlights from the full SLOCAT Transport and Climate Change Global Status Report – 2nd edition; see cross-referenced sections for more detail.)

This A-to-Z overview of trends in selected thematic areas raises several key questions: How can we accelerate climate action to move transport emissions in the right direction? Can we get there in time to prevent the most severe climate impacts? And, amidst the lingering pandemic, are we building back better? So far, these questions have all been met with a resounding “No… or at least not yet.”⁸⁷

Radical action is needed to deliver on Paris Agreement targets and Sustainable Development Goals to achieve an equitable 1.5 °C world and to adopt more sustainable development pathways. However, it will take concerted efforts and dedicated resources to stabilise accelerating climate change. To keep global temperature rise below 1.5 °C, annual transport CO2 emissions must drop to 2-3 Gt, which means reducing per capita transport emissions from 0.88 tonnes in 2019 to 0.2 tonnes in 2050.⁸⁸ This will require strong policy support, financial incentives and more equitable mobility options worldwide.

Radical action will necessitate taking unprecedented risks and creating positive disruptions. It is critical to anticipate and embrace short-term turbulence to ensure a more just transition in the long term. We see four primary building blocks to harness momentum on climate action for transport and to enable the radical action needed to decarbonise the sector:

These building blocks demonstrate that radical action in the transport sector is both an imperative and a possibility. Radical action means empowering both large and small carbon emitters to collaborate in shared solutions and to move beyond more calls for action on transport and climate change. It means moving on to scaling up and accelerating actual on-the-ground actions, which translate to positive impacts for access and mobility that help bridge divides among global regions and income groupings.

Through data-driven analysis, the SLOCAT Transport and Climate Change Global Status Report – 2nd edition demonstrates that rising transport demand and emission trends are avoidable and not inevitable. While 2019 and 2020 have revealed substantive threats to the world in general and to the transport sector in particular, the report shows that these years set the stage to transform a time of uncertainty into a moment of opportunity. Capitalising on this opportunity will create a lasting positive transformation of transport and mobility for the benefit of the climate, people and the planet.